Every stat, metric, and abbreviation explained.
Points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength. Calculated by Barttorvik using game-by-game results and opponent quality.
Points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength. Lower is better.
AdjOE minus AdjDE. Positive means you outscore opponents on a per-possession basis after adjusting for schedule strength.
Possessions per 40 minutes. Higher means faster-paced play. Calculated from game pace data.
Raw offensive output per possession, without opponent adjustment.
Points allowed per defensive possession. Lower is better.
Dean Oliver's four key factors that determine basketball success. Each has an offensive and defensive component.
Field goal % weighted to value 3-pointers 50% more than 2-pointers. Formula: (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) / FGA.
Turnovers committed per 100 possessions. Lower is better for offense, higher is better for defense.
Percentage of available offensive rebounds captured. Measures second-chance opportunity generation.
Free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Measures ability to get to the free throw line.
Made 3-pointers divided by 3-point attempts.
Percentage of field goal attempts taken from 3-point range. Higher means more perimeter-oriented offense.
Percentage of shots taken at the rim. Approximated from ESPN box score data.
Percentage of shots taken from mid-range. Approximated from ESPN box score data.
Per-minute production normalized to a league average of 15. Created by John Hollinger. Sourced from Basketball Reference.
Percentage of team possessions used by a player while on court. Measures offensive involvement.
Estimated points per 100 possessions a player contributes above average, derived from box score stats. Sourced from Basketball Reference.
Estimated number of wins contributed by a player across the season. Sourced from Basketball Reference.
Official NCAA ranking algorithm combining team value, net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted win percentage, and scoring margin. Used for tournament seeding.
Barttorvik's predictive team rating system based on adjusted efficiency metrics. Derived from the Barthag metric (predicted win probability vs average D1 team).
Weekly top-25 ranking voted on by a panel of sports journalists.
Average quality of opponents faced, calculated from opponent efficiency ratings. Sourced from Barttorvik.
Actual win% minus expected win% from scoring margin. Measures close-game variance — high luck means winning more close games than expected.
Win-loss record relative to the Vegas point spread. A team that consistently beats the spread is outperforming expectations.
Percentage of made field goals that are assisted. Measures ball movement and team play.
Steals per 100 opponent possessions. Measures defensive ball-hawking ability.
How our prediction system works and what each value means on game cards.
Model's win probability, from 50% (coin flip) to 100% (near certain). Based on the margin between teams' adjusted efficiency metrics.
Our model's predicted point spread. The team shown is the predicted favorite; the number is the expected margin of victory.
Sportsbook consensus point spread. The team shown is the favorite; the number is the expected margin of victory.
How favorable the play style matchup is (A+ to F), based on historical performance of similar archetype pairings.
Games where our model spread differs significantly from the Vegas line, suggesting a potential betting edge.
Average points scored inside the painted area per game. Sourced from ESPN box scores.
Average points scored in transition per game. Sourced from ESPN box scores.
The NCAA quadrant system classifies wins and losses by opponent quality and game location.
Record against top-tier opponents: home vs NET 1-30, neutral vs NET 1-50, away vs NET 1-75. Most important for NCAA tournament selection.
Record against above-average opponents: home vs NET 31-75, neutral vs NET 51-100, away vs NET 76-135.
Where our data comes from and how often it updates.
Game schedules, scores, team rosters, box score stats (paint points, fastbreak points, shooting splits). Updated daily.
Advanced team efficiency metrics (AdjOE, AdjDE, Tempo, Four Factors), strength of schedule, luck ratings, and player advanced stats. Updated daily.
Player advanced metrics (PER, Win Shares, BPM, Usage Rate). Updated weekly.
Official NET rankings scraped from ncaa.com. AP and Coaches Poll rankings from ESPN.
Vegas point spreads and over/unders from major sportsbooks. Free tier with daily updates.